DETERMINANTS OF THE FOREIGN TRADE TRANSFORMATION BETWEEN UKRAINE AND SOUTH AMERICAN COUNTRIES: DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURE (2021–2024)

Abstract

Relevance of the study is due to the need to rethink Ukraine’s foreign economic strategy against the backdrop of the full-scale russian aggression and the blockage of traditional trade routes. In contemporary geopolitical conditions, South America emerges as a critical vector for export diversification and securing the state’s resource needs. Global changes in the architecture of world trade and the intensification of cooperation with the South American region require scientific substantiation of new interaction models that respond to Ukraine’s current security and economic challenges. Subject of the study – Ukraine’s foreign trade relations with South American countries under martial law. The aim of the study is a complex analysis of the transformations in Ukraine’s foreign trade ties with South American countries during 2021–2024 and the identification of factors behind their resilience. Methods: a systems approach, analysis of chain indices of dynamics, calculation of resilience coefficients for commodity groups, and cartographic visualization. Results of the study: it is proven that the key determinants of trade transformation include: logistical (reorientation from deep-water Black Sea ports to Danubian and European hubs), security-related (changes in the demand structure favoring critical imports), and institutional (intensification of diplomatic presence). It was established that the full-scale invasion caused export volumes to fall by 10.4 times (from 480 million in 2021 to 46 million in 2023), while imports demonstrated higher resilience, decreasing by only 1.8 times. It was found that in 2024, a flow adaptation occurred, with Brazil accumulating over 45% of all regional trade turnover, and Ecuador becoming the leader in recovery rates (imports grew by 12% relative to the pre-war basis). A shift in emphasis within the commodity structure toward mineral fertilizers, engineering products, and the military-technical segment has been proven. Conclusion: despite the logistical collapse and security risks, a qualitative crystallization of relations with key partners in the region has taken place. The transition from broad expansion to pragmatic concentration on strategically important South American markets creates a foundation for the formation of new alliances within the framework of transregional cooperation with the states of this continent and the strengthening of Ukraine’s economic resilience. Practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the obtained data by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine for the implementation of the Communication Strategy “Ukraine – States of Latin America and the Caribbean”. The results can serve as a basis for business structures in export planning under limited logistics, as well as for developing state programs for foreign trade diversification. Prospects for further research: analysis of the impact of the restoration of the domestic maritime corridor on the dynamics of supply of high-dimensional goods to the countries of the Pacific coast of South America.