DEMOGRAPHIC THRESHOLDS AND IDENTITY SUSTAINABILITY IN SHRINKING RURAL COMMUNITIES: A CROSS-BORDER STUDY OF GREATER CUMANIAN SETTLEMENTS IN HUNGARY AND SERBIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32782/2786-5843/2026-3-2Keywords:
rural shrinkage, demographic resilience, critical demographic mass, Greater Cumanian settlements, identity sustainability, cross-border regionsAbstract
The accelerating demographic shrinkage of rural areas and its impact on community survival represent a critical challenge in contemporary Central Europe, necessitating a deeper understanding of the link between population structures and cultural sustainability. This study aims to examine these interconnections through a cross-border comparison of four Greater Cumanian (Nagykun) settlements in Hungary and Serbia (Vojvodina), exploring how population decline, ageing, and out-migration create ”threshold conditions” that endanger the intergenerational reproduction of community heritage. We employed a mixed-methods approach, combining a longitudinal demographic analysis (1949–2022) with 23 in-depth stakeholder interviews and a Likert-scale survey to compare subjective crisis perceptions with objective statistical trends. Results reveal a sharp divergence: while Hungarian small towns (Karcag, Kisújszállás) exhibit relative demographic resilience, the Vojvodinian peripheries (Bácskossuthfalva, Pacsér) face extreme population loss–retaining less than half of their baseline populations–and critical rejuvenation indices. A key finding is the strong negative correlation (r = -0.95) between ageing and population change, alongside a direct link between economic diversification and demographic regeneration potential (r = 0.90) for net wages and child population. These findings are highly applicable to regional development policies for shrinking European peripheries, proving that identity preservation is a direct function of economic retention capacity and institutional density. The study concludes that as spontaneous family-based socialization weakens, cultural continuity must rely on deliberate institutional compensatory mechanisms; without targeted structural interventions, communities falling into a ”demographic trap” face the irreversible erosion of their lived cultural heritage
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