MODIFICATION OF THE AIR TEMPERATURE IN THE CARPATHIAN BASIN OVER THE PERIOD 1981–2020

Abstract

The relevance of the research: climate change, including warming, which has emerged as one of the most important environmental problems of our lifetime, both at global and regional levels. The subject of the research is the features of temperature changes in the Carpathian Basin over recent decades. The purpose of the study is to determine the regional characteristics of temperature changes in the Carpathian Basin over the period 1981–2020, to identify relevant quantitative indicators as well as patterns of warming and their possible causes. Research methods: mostly mathematical-statistical methods of analysis were used, with emphasis on trend detection and breakpoint analysis, as well comparison of the goodness of fit between the models. The results of the study: linear trend analysis detected a significant upward trend for mean annual temperature data series for each station category over the studied decades, with values slightly above global average. Though, significant breakpoints were also detected in the dataset. As compared the fitting of trends and periods distributed by break points to the annual temperature data series, the latter proved better indicating the gradual nature in the temperature rise. As a result, analysis of the seasonal data show that more intense warming was observed in the summer. Still, it is important to note that the rise in summer temperatures was more likely to be trend-like. Practical significance: research results may facilitate a better understanding of the nature of climate change, which in turn, could improve its forecasting and facilitate adaptation to its consequences. Conclusions: global warming is regionally differentiated, with its spatial and temporal patterns determined by different climatic factors. The prospect of further research: to examine the dependence of region-specific features of climate change on its factors, especially the nature of atmospheric circulation.